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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 52

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(6:24) 4-R.Quigley punts 50 yards to PHI 2, Center-46-T.Purdum, downed by NYJ-20-M.Williams.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +3.01 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 52, worth -2.52 EP
KICK -1.39 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 15, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.75 EP