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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 12 at the 12

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:11) 1-C.Parkey 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +0.83 EP
  • 21% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.80 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 12, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.70 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 22, worth -1.19 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model