4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 65

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(2:55) 8-D.Jones punts 50 yards to NYJ 15, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 19 for 4 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -1.48 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +1.95 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 65, worth -3.67 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 23, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model