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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 85

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(10:24) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYJ 32, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to PHI 49 for 19 yards (27-M.Jenkins).

The Three Options

GO -2.77 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 80, worth +0.54 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 85, worth -5.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.30 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 43, worth -2.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model