4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 11 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 24 – New York Jets 7

What Actually Happened

(13:02) 8-D.Jones punts 41 yards to NYJ 12, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 11-J.Kerley.

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.13 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 53, worth -3.14 EP
KICK -2.06 EP
  • 19% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 81% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model