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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 7 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(8:24) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-T.Purdum. 43-D.Sproles to PHI 25 for no gain (41-B.Skrine).

The Three Options

GO -1.57 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.93 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.92 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.32 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model