Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 9 at the 74

Philadelphia Eagles 10 – New York Jets 0

(10:03) 8-D.Jones punts 56 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 27 for 9 yards (52-B.Jones).

The Three Options

GO -2.56 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.58 EP
69% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 74, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model