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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 70

New York Jets 0 – Philadelphia Eagles 10

What Actually Happened

(10:54) 4-R.Quigley punts 45 yards to PHI 25, Center-46-T.Purdum, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.80 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 70, worth -3.81 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 28, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.74 EP