Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 71

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – New York Jets 0

(13:50) 8-D.Jones punts 53 yards to NYJ 18, Center-46-J.Dorenbos. 11-J.Kerley to NYJ 33 for 15 yards (46-J.Dorenbos).

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP

48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.16 EP
52% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 71, worth -4.18 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model