Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 4 at the 74

Carolina Panthers 27 – New Orleans Saints 22

(4:00) 8-B.Nortman punts 53 yards to NO 21, Center-44-J.Jansen. 23-M.Murphy to NO 29 for 8 yards (53-B.Jacobs).

The Three Options

GO -0.66 EP

49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.61 EP
51% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 74, worth -2.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model