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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New Orleans Saints 4th & 2 at the 13

New Orleans Saints 0 – Carolina Panthers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:03) 2-Z.Hocker 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Drescher, Holder-7-L.McCown.

The Three Options

GO +2.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.94 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.54 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.86 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.18 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP