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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New Orleans Saints 4th & 3 at the 57

New Orleans Saints 16 – Carolina Panthers 20

What Actually Happened

(13:45) 6-T.Morstead punts 45 yards to CAR 12, Center-47-J.Drescher, fair catch by 19-T.Ginn.

The Three Options

GO +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +3.21 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.01 EP
What Happened
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model