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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 7 at the 29

Carolina Panthers 17 – New Orleans Saints 16

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 9-G.Gano 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-8-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 22, worth +4.41 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 29, worth -1.99 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 26% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 39, worth -2.70 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model