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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 20

Carolina Panthers 7 – New Orleans Saints 10

What Actually Happened

(:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Newton up the middle to NO 19 for 1 yard (53-R.Humber).

The Three Options

GO +2.92 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.71 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 20, worth -0.46 EP
KICK +2.09 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 37-yard field goal: 3 points, then New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: New Orleans Saints takes over around their own 30, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • New Orleans Saints would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model