Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 81

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

(1:00) 2-D.Colquitt punts 50 yards to GB 31, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde to GB 44 for 13 yards (35-C.West).

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 81, worth -4.90 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model