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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 13 at the 51

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(8:16) 2-D.Colquitt punts 40 yards to GB 11, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 33-M.Hyde.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.20 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 51, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.91 EP
  • 24% chance to make a 68-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 76% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model