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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 17 at the 49

Kansas City Chiefs 22 – Green Bay Packers 38

What Actually Happened

(3:57) (Shotgun) 11-A.Smith pass deep middle to 19-J.Maclin to GB 32 for 17 yards (37-S.Shields). GB-37-S.Shields was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP
What Happened
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +2.20 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.03 EP
KICK -0.87 EP
  • 28% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 72% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.04 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.57 EP