Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 66

Green Bay Packers 38 – Kansas City Chiefs 22

(5:57) 8-T.Masthay punts 49 yards to KC 17, Center-61-B.Goode. 13-D.Thomas to KC 17 for no gain (83-J.Janis).

The Three Options

GO -1.29 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.25 EP
58% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 66, worth -3.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model