Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 79

Kansas City Chiefs 7 – Green Bay Packers 17

(4:09) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to GB 22, Center-41-J.Winchester. 33-M.Hyde ran ob at GB 32 for 10 yards (90-J.Mauga).

The Three Options

GO -2.70 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 68, worth +1.07 EP
68% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model