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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 19 at the 26

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 7

What Actually Happened

(6:20) 2-M.Crosby 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-61-B.Goode, Holder-8-T.Masthay.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.50 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -0.88 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.35 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -1.50 EP
PUNT +0.00 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model