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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 14 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

What Actually Happened

(13:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass incomplete short left to 18-R.Cobb [91-T.Hali].

The Three Options

GO +0.81 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 39, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.36 EP
  • 53% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.75 EP
  • 47% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 48, worth -2.29 EP
PUNT +0.45 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth +0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model