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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 18 at the 52

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 7

What Actually Happened

(7:27) 19-B.Anger punts 42 yards to NE 10, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.41 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.52 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 52, worth -2.94 EP
KICK -1.80 EP
  • 21% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.15 EP
  • 79% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 49, worth -2.86 EP
PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 15, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model