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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 73

Jacksonville Jaguars 10 – New England Patriots 44

What Actually Happened

(13:27) 19-B.Anger punts 40 yards to NE 33, Center-46-C.Tinker. 80-D.Amendola to NE 42 for 9 yards (12-T.Washington).

The Three Options

GO -1.51 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.87 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 73, worth -4.30 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (90 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 31, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model