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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 20 at the 28

New England Patriots 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 3

What Actually Happened

(10:55) 3-S.Gostkowski 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-6-R.Allen.

The Three Options

GO +0.54 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 8, worth +5.48 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 28, worth -0.93 EP
KICK +1.38 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 78% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 22% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 38, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model