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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 22

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – New England Patriots 10

What Actually Happened

(9:37) 2-J.Myers 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-19-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.76 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.50 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.66 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 87% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 32, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model