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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 4 at the 42

Denver Broncos 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(5:05) 4-B.Colquitt punts 31 yards to DET 11, Center-46-A.Brewer, downed by DEN-46-A.Brewer.

The Three Options

GO +0.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.28 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 42, worth -2.24 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.84 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model