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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 67

Denver Broncos 14 – Detroit Lions 12

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 4-B.Colquitt punts 50 yards to DET 17, Center-46-A.Brewer. 13-T.Jones to DET 45 for 28 yards (85-V.Green).

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.18 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 67, worth -3.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -1.36 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 25, worth -1.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.95 EP