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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 59

Detroit Lions 12 – Denver Broncos 14

What Actually Happened

(4:08) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to DEN 8, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, downed by DET-24-N.Lawson.

The Three Options

GO -1.70 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.12 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model