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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 45

Denver Broncos 7 – Detroit Lions 6

What Actually Happened

(:13) (Shotgun) 18-P.Manning pass deep right to 88-D.Thomas for 45 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on DEN-88-D.Thomas, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

The Three Options

GO +0.73 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +1.49 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 45, worth -0.69 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
  • 41% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.94 EP
  • 59% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -0.97 EP
PUNT -0.02 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model