Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 66

Detroit Lions 0 – Denver Broncos 0

(11:29) 6-S.Martin punts 66 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -1.76 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.24 EP
69% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model