Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 11 at the 82

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(2:00) (Punt formation) 6-C.Schmidt punts 49 yards to MIA 33, Center-65-G.Sanborn. 14-J.Landry to BUF 48 for 19 yards (58-R.Johnson). PENALTY on BUF-65-G.Sanborn, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at BUF 48. Penalty on BUF-58-R.Johnson, Illegal Formation, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.82 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 71, worth +1.04 EP
64% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 82, worth -4.96 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model