Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 66

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

(9:50) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 47 yards to BUF 19, Center-92-J.Denney, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.03 EP

42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 60, worth +2.42 EP
58% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 66, worth -3.51 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model