4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 6

Miami Dolphins 14 – Buffalo Bills 41

What Actually Happened

(:23) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short right to 11-D.Parker (28-R.Darby).

The Three Options

GO +2.43 EP
What Happened
  • 34% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.81 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 6, worth +0.13 EP
KICK +2.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 23-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.87 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.13 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.36 EP