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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 46

Miami Dolphins 8 – Buffalo Bills 34

What Actually Happened

(8:11) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right to 18-R.Matthews for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN [94-Ma.Williams].

The Three Options

GO -0.25 EP
What Happened
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.36 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 46, worth -2.17 EP
KICK -0.78 EP
  • 34% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.19 EP
  • 66% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.30 EP
PUNT -0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 13, worth -0.21 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model