4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 2

Miami Dolphins 8 – Buffalo Bills 34

What Actually Happened

(10:17) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass incomplete short left to 11-D.Parker.

The Three Options

GO +3.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.94 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.74 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.92 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model