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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(:54) (Shotgun) 17-R.Tannehill pass deep right intended for 84-J.Cameron INTERCEPTED by 28-R.Darby at BUF 30. 28-R.Darby to MIA 49 for 21 yards (51-M.Pouncey).

The Three Options

GO -0.05 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.67 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.08 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.48 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model