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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 3 at the 53

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 17

What Actually Happened

(7:11) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 44 yards to BUF 9, Center-92-J.Denney, downed by MIA-30-Z.Bowman.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.83 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 53, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.54 EP
  • 20% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 80% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.43 EP
PUNT -0.53 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.73 EP