4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 2 at the 8

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(11:54) (Field Goal formation) 2-D.Carpenter 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +2.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.43 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 8, worth -0.50 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 21, worth -1.26 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Miami Dolphins would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP