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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 5 at the 75

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 0

What Actually Happened

(14:18) (Punt formation) 4-M.Darr punts 59 yards to BUF 16, Center-92-J.Denney. 11-M.Thigpen to BUF 23 for 7 yards (31-M.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -1.32 EP
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +2.03 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 75, worth -4.18 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 32, worth -1.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model