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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 4 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Atlanta Falcons 39

What Actually Happened

(1:34) (Shotgun) 3-B.Weeden pass incomplete short middle to 83-T.Williams. Pass incomplete on a slant pattern.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 48% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.80 EP
  • 52% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -2.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.69 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.69 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model