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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 12 at the 82

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Atlanta Falcons 32

What Actually Happened

(9:26) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 44 yards to ATL 38, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO -2.76 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.28 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 82, worth -4.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -2.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 40, worth -2.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model