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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 43

Dallas Cowboys 28 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(10:28) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 30 yards to ATL 13, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 14-E.Weems.

The Three Options

GO +0.13 EP
Model's Pick
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.69 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
KICK -0.40 EP
  • 46% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.33 EP
  • 54% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.75 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 12, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model