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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 79

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(12:44) (Punt formation) 5-M.Bosher punts 43 yards to DAL 36, Center-47-J.Harris. 11-C.Beasley to DAL 44 for 8 yards (14-E.Weems). Return inside the yardline numbers.

The Three Options

GO -1.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 61% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.73 EP
  • 39% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 79, worth -4.56 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.17 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 36, worth -2.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.85 EP