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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 27

Tennessee Titans 14 – Cleveland Browns 28

What Actually Happened

(1:04) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short left to 80-A.Fasano to CLE 19 for 8 yards (22-T.Williams).

The Three Options

GO +1.51 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.77 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 27, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.83 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 37, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.32 EP