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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tennessee Titans 4th & 9 at the 79

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(13:42) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 55 yards to CLE 24, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 38 for 14 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.24 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 79, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -2.54 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 36, worth -2.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP