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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 6 at the 13

Tennessee Titans 7 – Cleveland Browns 21

What Actually Happened

(6:48) (Shotgun) 8-M.Mariota pass short middle to 17-D.Green-Beckham for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 7, worth +5.39 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 13, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.89 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +2.07 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 23, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.22 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.22 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model