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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 20 at the 79

Cleveland Browns 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(5:48) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 62 yards to TEN 17, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 33 for 16 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -3.26 EP
  • 19% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.86 EP
  • 81% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 79, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 36, worth -1.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model