Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 7 at the 63

Cleveland Browns 21 – Tennessee Titans 0

(11:21) (Punt formation) 8-A.Lee punts 58 yards to TEN 5, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 22-D.McCluster to TEN 10 for 5 yards (20-S.Draughn).

The Three Options

GO -1.77 EP

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.42 EP
69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.61 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model