Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 14 at the 58

Tennessee Titans 0 – Cleveland Browns 14

What Actually Happened

(2:54) (Punt formation) 6-B.Kern punts 52 yards to CLE 6, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 11-T.Benjamin to CLE 15 for 9 yards (48-B.Brinkley). PENALTY on TEN-25-B.Wreh-Wilson, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 22.

The Three Options

GO -1.06 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.88 EP
66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 58, worth -3.07 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model