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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 19

Cleveland Browns 14 – Tennessee Titans 0

What Actually Happened

(6:44) 2-J.Manziel up the middle to TEN 19 for no gain (54-A.Williamson).

The Three Options

GO +2.42 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.91 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 19, worth -0.84 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
  • 89% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 11% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 29, worth -1.49 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model